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The Institutionally Creative Human

The Institutionally Creative Human

We've now traveled through 10,000 years of institutional history. We've seen that the standard story—the straight line from bands to tribes to chiefdoms to states—is wrong. We've seen egalitarian cities, seasonal hierarchies, temples before farms, and people who actively chose to

Primary State Formation: How States Actually Emerge

Primary State Formation: How States Actually Emerge

For most of human history, there were no states. Then, in a handful of places around the world, states appeared. Mesopotamia. Egypt. The Indus Valley. China. Mesoamerica. The Andes. Independently, in each of these regions, the apparatus we recognize as "the state" emerged. How? Why? And why so

Prediction Markets: Betting on the Future

Prediction Markets: Betting on the Future

In July 2024, a week before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Polymarket showed his chances of being the Democratic nominee at 30%. Pundits were still debating whether he'd stay in. Party officials were publicly supportive. But the money knew. When real stakes are on the

Wisdom of Crowds: Surowiecki's Conditions

Wisdom of Crowds: Surowiecki's Conditions

In 2003, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) proposed something that seemed insane: a futures market for terrorism. You could bet real money on the likelihood of assassinations, coups, and attacks. The idea was that such a market would aggregate intelligence better than any CIA analysis. The backlash was

Groups Can Be Smarter Than Individuals—If Structured Right

Groups Can Be Smarter Than Individuals—If Structured Right

In 1906, the British statistician Francis Galton attended a livestock fair in Plymouth. He was there to observe a contest: guess the weight of an ox after it had been slaughtered and dressed. About 800 people submitted estimates—farmers, butchers, and random fairgoers with no expertise whatsoever. Galton expected the

Swarm Intelligence: Ants and Algorithms

Swarm Intelligence: Ants and Algorithms

An ant has a brain smaller than a pinhead. It can't plan. It can't reason. It can't hold a map in its head. A single ant is, by any reasonable measure, unintelligent. And yet: ant colonies build sophisticated structures. They maintain temperature-controlled nests. They

Groupthink: When Collectives Fail

Groupthink: When Collectives Fail

On April 17, 1961, about 1,400 Cuban exiles landed at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba. They were there to overthrow Fidel Castro's government, backed by the CIA and approved by President Kennedy. The invasion was a catastrophe. Within three days, the exiles were killed or captured.