Ryan Collison

Why Smart People Believe: Motivated Reasoning Sir Arthur Conan Doyle created Sherlock Holmes—the most rational detective in literary history. A man who solved crimes through pure logic, who dismissed sentiment, who famously said "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

Cold Reading: How Psychics Simulate Insight In 1977, magician and skeptic James Randi decided to test psychic powers scientifically. He offered $10,000 (later increased to $1 million) to anyone who could demonstrate supernatural abilities under controlled conditions. Over the following decades, over a thousand people applied. Psychics, mediums, dowsers,

Oracles and Randomization: From Delphi to Decision Theory The Oracle at Delphi was the most powerful woman in the ancient world. For over a thousand years—from roughly 800 BCE to 400 CE—the Pythia sat on a tripod over a chasm in the Temple of Apollo and channeled prophecies.

Astrology: The Persistence of an Unfalsifiable System In 1985, physicist Shawn Carlson published a double-blind experiment in Nature—one of the world's most prestigious scientific journals. He gave astrologers natal charts and asked them to match each chart to the correct personality profile from a set of

Tarot: How 78 Cards Became a Mirror In 1440s Milan, a duke commissioned a set of illustrated playing cards. The Visconti-Sforza deck wasn't meant for divination. It was meant for games—specifically, a game called tarocchi, probably similar to modern bridge. The cards had four suits (cups,

The I Ching: 3,000 Years of Structured Randomness Sometime around 1000 BCE, someone in ancient China had an idea that would outlast empires. Take 50 yarrow stalks. Divide them according to a specific algorithm—set one aside, split the rest randomly, count off by fours, track the remainders. Do